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Abstract On 2024 July 25, while observing the solar active region NOAA 13762 with the high-resolution 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory, we witnessed two mysterious phenomena: the partial detachment of filament strands from its main body in the chromosphere and the sudden disappearance of a sunspot penumbra in the photosphere, the former accompanied by small flares. Our analysis reveals a spatiotemporal correlation between the filament peeling process and the penumbral disappearance. To understand the above observations physically, we performed a magnetohydrodynamic simulation that successfully replicated the disappearance of the penumbra as a consequence of weakened horizontal magnetic field. The simulations demonstrate that both the filament peeling and the penumbral decay are driven by the same underlying process: the upward expansion of the magnetic flux rope induced by null point magnetic reconnection. These results suggest a novel mechanism by which the Sun sheds magnetic flux to interplanetary space in the form of filament peeling and penumbral disappearance. 

Abstract Despite decades of research, the fundamental processes involved in the initiation and acceleration of solar eruptions remain not fully understood, making them long-standing and challenging problems in solar physics. Recent high-resolution observations by the Goode Solar Telescope have revealed small-scale magnetic flux emergence in localized regions of solar active areas prior to eruptions. Although much smaller in size than the entire active region, these emerging fluxes reached strengths of up to 2000 G. To investigate their impact, we performed data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We find that while the small-scale emerging flux does not significantly alter the preeruption evolution, it dramatically accelerates the eruption during the main phase by enhancing the growth of torus instability, which emerges in the nonlinear stage. This enhancement occurs independently of the decay index profile. Our analysis indicates that even subtle differences in the preeruption evolution can strongly influence the subsequent dynamics, suggesting that small-scale emerging flux can play a critical role in accelerating solar eruptions. 

Abstract Active region NOAA 13842 produced two successive solar flares: an X7.1-class flare on 2024 October 1, and an X9.0-class flare on 2024 October 3. This study continues our previous simulation work that successfully reproduced the X7.1-class solar flare. In this study, we performed a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic simulation using the nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) as the initial condition to investigate the X9.0-class solar flare. The NLFFF showed the sheared field lines, resulting in the tether-cutting reconnection, the magnetic flux ropes, and eventually led to eruption. The magnetic reconnection during the pre-eruption phase plays a critical role in accelerating the subsequent eruption, which is driven by torus instability and magnetic reconnection. Furthermore, our simulation results are consistent with several observational features associated with the X9.0 flare. This simulation could reproduce diverse phenomena associated with the X9.0 flare, including the tether-cutting reconnection, the flare ribbons and the postflare loops, the transverse field enhancement, and the remote brightening away from the flare ribbons. However, the initial trigger, magnetic flux emergence, was inferred from observations rather than explicitly modeled, and future comprehensive simulations should incorporate this mechanism directly. 

Abstract We investigated the initiation and the evolution of an X7.1-class solar flare observed in NOAA Active Region 13842 on 2024 October 1, based on a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. The nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolated from the photospheric magnetic field about 1 hr before the flare was used as the initial condition for the MHD simulations. The NLFFF reproduces highly sheared field lines that undergo tether-cutting reconnection in the MHD simulation, leading to the formation of a highly twisted magnetic flux rope (MFR), which then erupts rapidly, driven by both torus instability and magnetic reconnection. This paper focuses on the dynamics of the MFR and its role in eruptions. We find that magnetic reconnection in the preeruption phase is crucial in the subsequent eruption driven by the torus instability. Furthermore, our simulation indicates that magnetic reconnection also directly enhances the torus instability. These results suggest that magnetic reconnection is not just a by-product of the eruption due to reconnecting of postflare arcade, but also plays a significant role in accelerating the MFR during the eruption. 

Abstract The dynamic structures of solar filaments prior to solar flares provide important physical clues about the onset of solar eruptions. Observations of those structures under subarcsecond resolution with high cadence are rare. We present high-resolution observations covering preeruptive and eruptive phases of two C-class solar flares, C5.1 (SOL2022-11-14T17:29) and C5.1 (SOL2022-11-14T19:29), obtained by the Goode Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. Both flares are ejective, i.e., accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). High-resolution Hαobservations reveal details of the flares and some striking features, such as a filament peeling process: individual strands of thin flux tubes are separated from the main filament, followed shortly thereafter by a flare. The estimated flux of rising strands is in the order of 10¹⁷Mx, versus the 10¹⁹Mx of the entire filament. Our new finding may explain why photospheric magnetic fields and overall active region and filament structures as a whole do not have obvious changes after a flare, and why some CMEs have been traced back to the solar active regions with only nonerupting filaments, as the magnetic reconnection may only involve a very small amount of flux in the active region, requiring no significant filament eruptions. We suggest internal reconnection between filament threads, instead of reconnection to external loops, as the process responsible for triggering this peeling of threads that results in the two flares and their subsequent CMEs. 

Abstract We present a transformer model, named DeepHalo, to predict the occurrence of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Our model takes as input an active region (AR) and a profile, where the profile contains a time series of data samples in the AR that are collected 24 hr before the beginning of a day, and predicts whether the AR would produce a halo CME during that day. Each data sample contains physical parameters, or features, derived from photospheric vector magnetic field data taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We survey and match CME events in the Space Weather Database Of Notification, Knowledge, Information and the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph CME Catalog, and we compile a list of CMEs, including halo CMEs and nonhalo CMEs, associated with ARs in the period between 2010 November and 2023 August. We use the information gathered above to build the labels (positive vs. negative) of the data samples and profiles at hand, where the labels are needed for machine learning. Experimental results show that DeepHalo with a true skill statistic (TSS) score of 0.907 outperforms a closely related long short-term memory network with a TSS score of 0.821. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the transformer model has been used for halo CME prediction. 

Abstract The application of machine learning to the study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impacts on Earth has seen significant growth recently. Understanding and forecasting CME geoeffectiveness are crucial for protecting infrastructure in space and ensuring the resilience of technological systems on Earth. Here we present GeoCME, a deep-learning framework designed to predict, deterministically or probabilistically, whether a CME event that arrives at Earth will cause a geomagnetic storm. A geomagnetic storm is defined as a disturbance of the Earth’s magnetosphere during which the minimum Dst index value is less than −50 nT. GeoCME is trained on observations from the instruments including LASCO C2, EIT, and MDI on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), focusing on a dataset that includes 136 halo/partial halo CMEs in Solar Cycle 23. Using ensemble and transfer learning techniques, GeoCME is capable of extracting features hidden in the SOHO observations and making predictions based on the learned features. Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of GeoCME, achieving a Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 0.807 and a true skill statistics score of 0.714 when the tool is used as a deterministic prediction model. When the tool is used as a probabilistic forecasting model, it achieves a Brier score of 0.094 and a Brier skill score of 0.493. These results are promising, showing that the proposed GeoCME can help enhance our understanding of CME-triggered solar-terrestrial interactions. 

Abstract We present observations and analysis of an eruptive M1.5 flare (SOL2014-08-01T18:13) in NOAA active region (AR) 12127, characterized by three flare ribbons, a confined filament between ribbons, and rotating sunspot motions as observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. The potential field extrapolation model shows a magnetic topology involving two intersecting quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs) forming a hyperbolic flux tube (HFT), which constitutes the fishbone structure for the three-ribbon flare. Two of the three ribbons show separation from each other, and the third ribbon is rather stationary at the QSL footpoints. The nonlinear force-free field extrapolation model implies the presence of a magnetic flux rope (MFR) structure between the two separating ribbons, which was unclear in the observation. This suggests that the standard reconnection scenario for eruptive flares applies to the two ribbons, and the QSL reconnection for the third ribbon. We find rotational flows around the sunspot, which may have caused the eruption by weakening the downward magnetic tension of the MFR. The confined filament is located in the region of relatively strong strapping field. The HFT topology and the accumulation of reconnected magnetic flux in the HFT may play a role in holding it from eruption. This eruption scenario differs from the one typically known for circular ribbon flares, which is mainly driven by a successful inside-out eruption of filaments. Our results demonstrate the diversity of solar magnetic eruption paths that arises from the complexity of the magnetic configuration. 

Abstract We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short‐term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short‐term forecasts of the SYM‐H index based on 1‐ and 5‐min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM‐H index value at time pointt + whours for a given time pointtwherewis 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM‐H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1‐ and 5‐min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM‐H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM‐H = −393 nT) using 5‐min resolution data. When predicting the SYM‐H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot. 

Abstract Magnetic field plays an important role in various solar eruption phenomena. The formation and evolution of the characteristic magnetic field topology in solar eruptions are critical problems that will ultimately help us understand the origin of these eruptions in the solar source regions. With the development of advanced techniques and instruments, observations with higher resolutions in different wavelengths and fields of view have provided more quantitative information for finer structures. It is therefore essential to improve the method with which we study the magnetic field topology in the solar source regions by taking advantage of high-resolution observations. In this study, we employ a nonlinear force-free field extrapolation method based on a nonuniform grid setting for an M-class flare eruption event (SOL2015-06-22T17:39) with embedded vector magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Goode Solar Telescope (GST). The extrapolation results for which the nonuniform embedded magnetogram for the bottom boundary was employed are obtained by maintaining the native resolutions of the corresponding GST and SDO magnetograms. We compare the field line connectivity with the simultaneous GST/Hαand SDO/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly observations for these fine-scale structures, which are associated with precursor brightenings. Then we perform a topological analysis of the field line connectivity corresponding to fine-scale magnetic field structures based on the extrapolation results. The analysis results indicate that when we combine the high-resolution GST magnetogram with a larger magnetogram from the SDO, the derived magnetic field topology is consistent with a scenario of magnetic reconnection among sheared field lines across the main polarity inversion line during solar flare precursors.